The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling! and What to do About it.

By Chicken Little, A.K.A. Ron Stoloff

The Y2K “problem” loomed mightily as the calendar was about to flip from 1999 to 2000. Stories filled the press and the web about what was going to happen to our electronic devices which might not be quite ready for the change.
This started as an article for the Data Bus, then became the subject of a speech when I was drafted by an organization to speak to the problem.

At the December, 1998 Philadelphia Area Computer Society meeting a man by the name of Foster spoke about the Y2K “problem.”

“Problem!” Ha!

Unless you’ve been living in a cardboard box over a steam vent, you already know more than you’d care to about this impending disaster. Articles in virtually every media source from Dear Abby to Dennis the Menace and Cathy have blared the warning of the impending doom. You know, the one that will befall every computer or chip-controlled device/service/operation/machine in the universe beginning January 1, 00.

And that’s precisely the problem: “00.” It seems that in the 50’s and 60’s memory was so expensive that programmers, to save every “byte” of space squished the dates down to two digits instead of four. They knew this would be a problem when 00 rolled around but they thought, “No idiot is still going to be using this program by then and besides I’ll be long past retirement by that time. It’ll be too late to fire me!”

Well…. It seems we are the “idiots” who are still using those programs and here it is, less than 4 months away from the “Great Aught” and we are staring total catastrophe in the face along with the “end of civilization as we know it.”

Or so Foster framed it. His hour presentation was well documented by taking every Cassandra at face value as each presented a worst-case scenario for the roll over: EVERYTHING will fail, stop or not work or any of the preceding combinations.

We’re not just talking about a minor glitch of no power during a lightning storm or when your cable goes out. We’re talking an Auckland-style power outage of WEEKS: no banks, ATM’s, Social Security checks, water, gas, gasoline, telephones, elevators, faxes, hospital drip pumps, and – God forbid! – video games.

Get the idea? Nothing will work!

And we can’t tell which device will react in which way.

• An elderly PC might just change your file dates to 01/01/80 or 01/04/80 or nothing will happen.
• You might get a bill from your mortgage company saying you’re 100 years behind in your payments and you have exactly 10 days to pay off your mortgage entirely plus $3,259,002.57 in unpaid interest.
• Your bank accounts might be turned over to the State because they’ve been inactive for 100 years. [Interestingly, you never hear of the possibility of being credited with 100 years interest INTO your account.]
• The elevator that takes you up to your 45^th floor apartment or office won’t work because the “hard wired” chip that forces your cheap building management company to service it on a regular basis will have its fail-safe mechanism swing into action since that service hasn’t been done in decades.
• Some of the least likely beasts have this problem: I’ve read of supermarket automatic doors not being Y2K Compatible. Turns out when they were designed, the manufacturers figured it might be important to the owners of the doors as to the day and to know the day you must know the year – remember the Leap Year problem and that may create an extra wrinkle to the problem because 2,000, what you would expect to be a normal leap year, isn’t.

And don’t think you’ll be able to ignore this because you have gas or oil heat instead of electric heat: no power, your thermostat doesn’t kick in, no igniter and no blower.

Burrrrrrrrr!

OK, that’s the worst that can happen….

Oh, I forgot riots, insurrection, looting and general mayhem because people will suddenly realize they have no way to get anything because they have no money since the banks are closed and the ATM’s don’t work while the less noble citizenry will see the lack of phones and working alarm systems as an opportunity. Oops!

Now, that’s the worst…..

Oh, what about the REST of the world? They’re probably in graver shape than we are – except the countries that are so primitive that they have no computer-involved activities. Perhaps they’ll take over the world – what’s left of it.

And so it goes. But what is really going to happen on that “Great Roll Over Day?” It depends on who you talk to and when. The Social Security Administration reported that they had solved the problem – then they discovered another 30 gazillion lines of code that they didn’t know they had in the State and regional offices. The atomic power plants have been ordered that if they haven’t fixed and tested every program and device before the Summer/Fall of 99 they have to shut down. It would be embarrassing to have 20 or 30 Three-Mile Island/Chernobiles happening simultaneously.

But there are some bright lights: Remember the sale of CoreStates to First Union (FU)? I’ve heard that one reason CoreStates was so eager to sell, besides the gobs of goo they got for their bank, was that they hadn’t really started on the Y2K problem but that FU had, so there was a big potential savings that would buy a large assortment of golf course memberships. Bell Atlantic has ordered that any device or program that couldn’t be fixed and tested by June had to be replaced and they’ve already replaced their timecard system. Now that’s serious!

Interestingly, one of the predictions was that every old-time computer programmer – the guys who “caused” the problem in the first place – would be called out of retirement to fix the problem and how the gazillions of lines probably wouldn’t be fixed until way too late. It seems as if this problem has been solved in a novel way: Instead of fixing, companies have just been junking their old equipment and software and buying new stuff, stuff that they probably should have acquired years ago but the bean counters blocked the replacement since the old software still worked. This has made the hardware and software providers happy – and maybe you, as well.

Add this to the list of “Unexpected Consequences.”

I’ve seen an ad for Staples that in very small print states,

“Staples resells technology products and does not warrant that such products will properly process dates after 12/31/99. We have compiled a contact list of the manufacturers of these products to assist you with your questions regarding the Y2K issue. Details in store.”

What does this say about the situation when a store is unwilling to back their goods in late August to be still able to work 5 months later?

So, what is a reasonable person to do if he’s as confused as anyone else but doesn’t want to be caught with his head in the sand and yet not spend so much that if nothing happens he’ll have wasted the equivalent of a Harvard education on something that didn’t ensue? Here’s what I plan to do. [Don’t come after me in 20 years when civilization is finally running again – I’m no one you’d choose as a leader.]

• If you have a real fireplace, get your wood earlier and buy more than you’d normally purchase. Even if all goes well, you can still use it.
• Money: Get a couple hundred bucks out of the bank way before midnight. Money is always good. The Federal Reserve is expecting a “minor run” on banks so it is planning to release an extra $50 or $60 million [billion?] to feed the ATM’s. Those people who only hear about Y2K on December 31 will be lined 2,700 deep at every ATM in the country.
• If the computers not only go down but when they come back up they’ve lost everything or bollixed all the records, get a hard-copy of every account you have.
• If you have a kerosene heater, consider getting several extra 5 gallon cans. But be VERY careful about this: DON’T store this in your garage or basement. If you need the fire department and Y2K is bad, you’ll be out of luck.
• Light. Get candles. Big ones with wind shields. Remember Grandma’s old kerosene lamp? Find out if it still works. These give better, safer light than candles. Batteries? Ok, but don’t depend on them for the long run. Don’t get fooled by the pink bunny.
• Your barbecue grill. At the end of grilling season, fill the tank and maybe get another. Careful with the storage – these can become bombs. Also, think about a nice, big chain. If you do need the propane, after a few weeks people who didn’t prepare will be out hunting for the tanks.
• Food. This will be in the middle of winter but this being Philadelphia it could be -20 or 85. Your best bet is either freeze dried or cans. I’ve heard that a company that normally sells to Mormons (they must have a year’s supply of food on hand) charges about $1,400 for enough for each adult. A bit much, perhaps.
• Guns. Myself, I’m getting a Vulcan machine gun. Darn, can’t use it, might not have any electricity. OK, an AK47, some shotguns, assorted handguns and plenty of ammo, maybe a few land mines to fend off my stupid, grasshopper neighbors. Remember the moral debates in the 60’s about fallout shelters? Here we go again. But, then, maybe not. Better talk to your neighbors, in a low-key way, about what you all can do in case the ball doesn’t fall in Times Square New Year’s night.
• Plan with your neighbors about pooling your resources: wood, propane, canned goods. If everyone tries to heat their house individually and Y2K runs long, then everyone will freeze. Your neighbors might look at you strangely but they’ll be less likely to kill you for your long underwear later.
• Buy a generator? Probably not. To light your house would require so much power that you’ll go broke buying it and you’ll probably run out of gasoline since it will be unavailable once Martial Law is declared and all fuels – including kerosene and diesel – will be government controlled commodities.
• Find out where the water cut-off valve is in your home and how to drain the water lines. This is a good idea anyway in case a pipe breaks any time. Get some antifreeze to put in your toilet, sink traps, etc. in case you have to abandon your unheated home for the community shelter. If you don’t need it for Y2K, your car will, next year.
• Beware of scams: I’ve heard of a guy selling “Y2K Compatible” light bulbs – he can’t keep them in stock, they’re selling so fast.
• Get those prescriptions refilled before Christmas – I don’t need to tell you about the effect of closed pharmacies can be on folks with chronic (and deadly) illnesses.
• Should you travel over the New Year? Consider the computer failures during normal times and multiply that by 10 for outside the US.
• Your computer: Make sure the date on your PC is set for 4 digits – 1999. Do this now as some claim this will be messy to do after January 1. To check this, go into the Control Panel and click on Regional Settings/Date and change yy to yyyy. In Windows 98 there is another feature – a “tilt” date where the defaults are 1930 and 2029. What this means is any date, if entered as 2 digits and is less than 30 is considered 20 something, if 30 or more is 19 something. Got that? You’d better, as there is a test after my presentation. Careful though, not all software, even Microsoft’s uses the same tilt date. Fun, Fun!
• As far as Mac, it claims there is no problem but that doesn’t mean the software will be ready – especially spread sheets or any “date critical” software. Check your databases now.
• Another fun fact/rumor: I’ve heard that Word 5.0 will work “for a while” then will “break.” I have no idea what “break” means.
• Oh, yeah, buy a hand can opener. I’ve got mine right here.

I’ll see you on January 2, 2000 – see, I can use four digits.

By the way, don’t even get me started on the real date of the beginning of the 3^rd millennium – that’s January 1, 2001. But that’s another story.